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  • Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 07:53


kartofflr

i got my 4th gold box by now. eventhough im quite happy to receive already 4 with just 62 dices rolled im still surprised by the chances of the item drop.

All boxes were +30% exp. how are your experiences? did u have more luck in getting one of the imo more valuable gold items?

Im not whining or so, i enjoy the dice and drop event since im (luckily) not affected by the drop bugs. but this issue leaves me actually kind of stunned ^_^

 

regards

 

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 08:00


a1fox3

All i know is if i roll a 1 and land on the gold then i get EBB/ECV coupon but all other numbers have come up with 30%.

2xroll 1 = 2 EBB/ECV coupon.
10xroll any number other than 1 = 30%.


On the one for medals.

If i roll a 1 to land on them = 2 medals.
If i roll 2-5 = 1 medal.
If i roll 6 to land on it i get 0 medals.

Bronze block.
Any number other than a 6 = some type of item but if i roll a 6 to land on bronze then it is always "fail please try again".

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 08:42


Schwarzenegg

Originally Posted by a1fox3

All i know is if i roll a 1 and land on the gold then i get EBB/ECV coupon but all other numbers have come up with 30%.

2xroll 1 = 2 EBB/ECV coupon.
10xroll any number other than 1 = 30%.


On the one for medals.

If i roll a 1 to land on them = 2 medals.
If i roll 2-5 = 1 medal.
If i roll 6 to land on it i get 0 medals.

Bronze block.
Any number other than a 6 = some type of item but if i roll a 6 to land on bronze then it is always "fail please try again".



Rolled a one just now landed on gold... 30%.... 

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 09:30


Nonamesleft

I finally rolled a 1 and got me a gold box. And I won an ebb ticket.  

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 10:29


Kilaenots

4 gold, 4 30%... makes me want to play so much more than an evenly distributed probability. But at least this event will have kept the game going for a year or so as there will be at least a handful of players who would have bought a full crew of new 115 sailors for however many dollars it costs.

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 10:32


jacopo

i think we should refrain from probability and focus more on possibility. the same thing could be said about video poker when compared against slots....a drunken monkey can play slot machines since there is absolutely no control, which means it is possible he will hit the big jackpot, but not probable. a video poker player maintains control over which cards he or she holds, and which to throw away. this means there is a probability he or she will hit the jackpot. this event is more reliant on possibility rather than probability.

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 10:51


Kilaenots

Originally Posted by jacopo

i think we should refrain from probability and focus more on possibility. the same thing could be said about video poker when compared against slots....a drunken monkey can play slot machines since there is absolutely no control, which means it is possible he will hit the big jackpot, but not probable. a video poker player maintains control over which cards he or she holds, and which to throw away. this means there is a probability he or she will hit the jackpot. this event is more reliant on possibility rather than probability.


Do you understand statistics and probability? 

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 11:17


mikep

Well so far for me 4 gold boxes has netted me 30 medals in total and 1X30% Exp.

I suppose now that I am wanting medals I will receive more 30% ( mind you I have not landed on a gold box for over a week now :-(

20 more medals please........... 

Just for info 91 rolls so far. 42+ rolls since my last gold box. 

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 03. 2014 12:06


phantom3553

i think i got 6 or 7, 

i gotz
a lvl 90 sailors (my first roll when event started)
a 30% exp
an ebb/ecv coupon
and the rest +10 medals (most common on gold boxes) 

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 04. 2014 03:26


kartofflr

Originally Posted by jacopo

i think we should refrain from probability and focus more on possibility. the same thing could be said about video poker when compared against slots....a drunken monkey can play slot machines since there is absolutely no control, which means it is possible he will hit the big jackpot, but not probable. a video poker player maintains control over which cards he or she holds, and which to throw away. this means there is a probability he or she will hit the jackpot. this event is more reliant on possibility rather than probability.

It is not my intention to start some academic discussion about terms. Both terms are more or less linked in the field of statistics. But this is not the point at all.

Normally i'd guess all items within a box have the same chance of getting dropped. As it (somewhat expected) seems, the values differ. Lets stick to gold boxes: 5 items, regular thesis would be, 20% drop chance for all items. i rolled 4 times got 4 times an item i need the least. either im "unlucky" when chances are equally set with 20%, or few items have a higher/lower percentage value of getting randomed.

Reading the given posts in here, it seems that the medal and exp drop has a higher chance of getting realized than coupon and sailors. All i wanted was to share my experiences with the experience of other players and try to compare - if that is even possible. Not more not less :)

Good Luck everyone for receiving the (gold) items each needs the most :P

regards

  • Re : Gold boxes drop probability

    10. 04. 2014 04:03


EricIdle

I concur with a1fox3 that there appears to be a statistical link between the number rolled to get to a gold or other box, and its contents.

In an unrigged game, there shouldn't be such a link - any box opening should be independent from the die rolled to get there. This is for me what I take issue with.

And no, jacopo hasn't got the slightest idea about statistics. He's not the only one, though.

I actually start considering statistics specialised knowledge in this day and age, so we shouldn't hold the fact that they don't understand any of it against people.

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