I am sick of people speculating what the chance of winning the NF lottery. So may I
make a post that ends all posts. Mod, please sticky this so that people will stop
asking what's the chance, what's the chance.

We have to pick 6 numbers out of 45, so the probability of winning for each ticket is:
1 out of ( 45 choose 6 ) = 1 / 8145060

Let's say everyone in the community participate in lottery, and we made
arrangements so that no two persons pick the same set of numbers (This maximizes
the chance of us winning). Assuming 5000 participants, and each can buy three
tickets. The chance of a win for each lottery game is (5000 * 3 ) / 8145060

Let'e say TeamNF runs a lottery each week. The chance of no one winning within 3
years is: [1 - (5000 * 3 ) / 8145060] ^ ( 52 * 3 ) = 75%
** Here, I assumed that the result of each lottery is independent of the results of
other lottery games. This is a valid assumption unless TeamNF cheats the lottery.
Also, there are 52 weeks in a year.

The expected time to the first win is given by 1/p, where p is probability of each
success. Please refer to the chapter on Bernoulli process in any statistics textbook.
** As calculated before. The chance of someone winning in any given lottery game is
(5000 * 3 ) / 8145060. So p = (5000 * 3 ) / 8145060

Expected time to a win = 8145060 / (5000*3) games = 543 games = 10.4 years.
** expected time to a win = average time to a win

The expected payout is then 543 * 10 vets = 5430 vets, and a shit-load of credits.

In conclusion, no one is expected to win within 10 years. By the time someone wins,
the prize is so huge that TeamNF is not expected to honor the deal anyway.

TeamNF either has to cheat the lottery to make someone win, or.....