Why did you divide by three?

You got 4 conversions out of 28 tries for a 14% success rate. That is many times higher than the normally expected success rate. 

Come on Gtdawg, make just a little effort.

That can't hurt the brain too much to

1) read properly what I wrote

2) understand the difference between your average success rate at one specific point in time and the BASE rate of conversion which is correlated to sailor level and number of vets already present.

So yes I had to divide by three to account for my 300% conversion rate modifier (200% event * 150% premium)

Prove it.

I actually didn't call you stupid, if you read well. I asked you to make an effort.

Most people aren't stupid, they are just a bit lazy.

Now the "expected success rate" you give with 1-2%, with all due respect, is wrong, plain and simple.

The 1-2% might be correct for overvetting, but not for low-level sailors with 50 vets only. And you'd find lots of people here who would confirm this.

At this level, the base conversion rate would be about 5-10%. The BASE rate, that is, the % before the event and prem boosts to the conversion rate.

My comment to Rehor was in reply to his usual sophisticated trolling. The OP provided his assumption based on his experience. Rehor knows fullwell that Syst3ms can't "prove" it since only SDE knows the value of "x".

I know how the burden of proof works.  Observational selection; you are doing it right.